Saturday, March 30, 2013

Five Immutable Laws of Pari-Mutuel Investing


1) Superior information generates superior returns; the higher the quality of the information used to make decisions, the higher the quality of the decisions resulting from analysis of that information. "Information" is distinct from "data"; the vast majority of material used by pari-mutuel investors is raw data-masses of words, numbers, charts, and graphs-rather than information. Information is data that has been analyzed, processed, and converted into a form that a potential investor can use as the basis for decision-making.

2) The value of information is in direct proportion to the availability of that information; the higher the number of investors with access to the information, the less valuable that information becomes.

3) The competition in pari-mutuel investing is with other investors; that competition is only indirectly related to the pari-mutuel events. Most pari-mutuel investors believe they are trying to "outguess" the other investors regarding the outcome of specific pari-mutuel events. Nothing could be further from the truth; the outcome of individual pari-mutuel events is almost irrelevant from an investment perspective. It is the result over time that is significant.

4) The decision-making skills and pattern-recognition skills necessary for success in other business and investment activities are every bit as necessary for success in pari-mutuel investing. Professional bettors recognize this need and continually develop, fine tune, and train their decision-making and pattern-recognition skills.

5) The strongest advantage for serious pari-mutuel investors is the average racing fan's belief that the outcomes of races are either too complex for him or her to determine, or are unknowable. Both beliefs justify the view of wagering as primarily for entertainment, justify a near-total lack of cognitive effort to determine the probable outcomes, and justify losses as the cost of entertainment. Wagering is enjoyable, and winning is more enjoyable than losing; by focusing on wagering as a business enterprise, there will be many more opportunities to enjoy the process than if wagering is regarded solely as entertainment.




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